Wales, like Scotland, rarely gets the prime minister it voted for.

Successive opinion polls show Boris Johnson is seen to be untrustworthy and unfit for office, and a likely disastrous set of local elections is on the horizon. The letters of no confidence from Tory MPs will soon be sent to the 1922 committee. A new leader will be ushered in to clean up politics. “Change” will be a buzzword ringing around Westminster.

For Wales, history looks set to repeat itself.

Johnson’s greatest impact on the Welsh psyche has been symbolic. His growing unpopularity over the last two years has been a stark contrast to the Welsh Labour government, buoyant politically since the first summer of the pandemic and almost untouchable after the Senedd election.

For the first time after the advent of devolution, much of the public feel relieved that while Wales may have not voted for the prime minister, at least he is not taking the key decisions that affect us.

There are a host of candidates who ache to wear the prime ministerial crown. Few, with good reason, are not prepared to wield the knife to bring it within their grasp; the experience of Michael Heseltine a recent warning from history of the Shakespearian consequences of doing so.

Rishi Sunak, once the rising star, now looks broken and beaten by the public outrage over his wife’s tax arrangements and his fixed penalty notice. Liz Truss is popular among the Tory grassroots and would be the other favourite in any race. Raab and Patel, even Rees-Mogg, may fancy their chance.

One Nation MPs must wince upon the realisation that their most skilled political operators are isolated on the backbenches, or were banished during the Cummings era from the party altogether.

We know little about what anyone beyond Johnson thinks about devolution in the Cabinet, but whoever takes charge will not reset relations with the devolved nations. Legislation such as the Shared Prosperity Fund shows that today’s Conservative party shrugs at the governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, in a way that wasn’t always the case under predecessors such as David Cameron.

The Institute of Welsh Affairs, our nation’s preeminent think-tank, has argued that by bypassing the devolved administrations, the Shared Prosperity Fund reflects a "lack of respect" and that there has been the "deliberate retrenchment of devolution to Wales." Indeed but worse is that an aggressive lunge towards the other governments of the UK has been catalysed, not calmed, by these nations’ secretaries of state.

Last week I reflected on the role Simon Hart has played in using the Wales Office to stoke tensions with the Welsh government, for little benefit to the constituents he supposedly serves. He, and the secretary of state for Scotland Alister Jack, are willing spokesman for a prime minister and government hellbent on centralisation. Hart said to me in an interview last year he did not "totally disagree" with the devolution concept, yet the evidence to support that statement is very thin.

The time will soon come that the Johnson era of politics comes to an end. But the same battles will continue over devolution. Powers, money and control will be there for Downing Street to grasp as they wish.

The challenge for those who believe in the right of Welsh self-determination is to ensure that does not happen at any cost.

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